Thursday, July 16, 2009

goog earnings after close today

closer look at goog.
as of wednesday close, market pricing in a range of 415.57 to 460.77 or a 5.16% move after earnings.
this is about the least volatile a move as i can remember over the last 2 years.
since the run up has been rather modest before earnings, let's remind ourselves of the support levels.

at a current 5-0 sell daily, the sequential TDST down line point is 390.00
this does not confirm the option dealers' 415.57 projected level, so there is a small risk for dislocation.
on the breakout side, sequential RISK point is 455.22, also lower than the options players projection of 460.77
what this mean to me is that the market is afraid to price in an upside surprise.

stay alert!

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