Thursday, April 16, 2009

4/16/2009 at 945am

aapl completed a daily sequential 9 count yesterday.
it has not been 'perfected' as per demark requirements.
look at charts below and read the commentary.



paul
Posted by chiumeister at 9:59 AM

8 comments:

  1. AndyApril 16, 2009 at 10:29 AM

    Thanks for the chart update. I'm thinking there is enough time for AAPL to continue to run up into earnings, and perfect the sell countdown. In your experience, do you typically see a selloff after the countdown is completed? I've never traded based on DeMark, but I'm intrigued, and would like to dip my toes in the water.

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  2. chiumeisterApril 16, 2009 at 10:41 AM

    from my observations over the last 2 decades using this indicator, over 2/3 of the time, a reversal takes place. 1/2 of the remaining cases with the trend pausing for a few sessions where you benefit from selling options and time to re-strategize and the other half with the trend continuing.

    check out the really long term spx sequential charts here:

    http://chiuindex.blogspot.com/2007/12/spx-with-sequential-counts-through-nine.html

    paul

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  3. AndyApril 21, 2009 at 10:01 AM

    Thanks for the long term SPX counts.

    If I'm reading it right, as of the close 4/20, we now have a daily sell countdown of 11 from Friday. If today turns into a strong up day with a close above Friday's high of 124.50, we could see 12, and potentially 13 tomorrow. Alternatively, 12 tomorrow, and 13 on Thursday after earnings. My TA skills are somewhat limited, but it looks to me like there is a daily negative divergence forming on both RSI and MACD. I'm inclined to think we are setting up for a drop. What are your thoughts? Will the weekly sell setup override the daily countdown?

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  4. chiumeisterApril 21, 2009 at 10:14 PM

    as of tuesday close, that 11 countdown tally still holds.

    on weekly frame, it's at a sell setup #5

    looking ahead in the daily frame

    in order for the sell countdown to reach 12, the next bar's close must be greater than the high 2 price bars previous, 122.99 on 4/20/2009

    and so on

    paul

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  5. AndyApril 22, 2009 at 9:22 AM

    Right. I'm following the sequential counts okay. Not having traded based on DeMark, I'm wondering if the weekly sell setup would generally override the daily sell countdown? Or doesn't it matter until the weekly setup is completed?
    I haven't had a chance to calculate where we are in the TD D-Wave count, which is something that intrigues me. It seems that could give me an idea if we will continue to trend up a bit more. Is that something you use?
    I suspect we'll have a wild ride tomorrow, with earnings released tonight.

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  6. chiumeisterApril 22, 2009 at 11:55 AM

    at this moment of the overall market where the monthly sequential for just about all indexes is at a #1 sell, we, the investors and traders have no real trust as to the long term direction of this thing.

    so we look shorter term.
    here, the weeklies look a bit more positive, as some indexes are #4 or #5. these levels mean a bullish cycle is in place and from my experience, another 1 to 2 weeks of extension take place 2/3 of the time. the majority of the 1/3 remaining case is sideways with a lower probability of sharp reversal.
    so, with the weekly readings, i am still somewhat bullish with current affairs.

    this market reading is what i take as a top down reference for trading individual stocks. i firmly believe it is smarter to buiy a stock when the sector and the overall market is bullish. this is easier to pick out stocks that go up regardless of market direction.

    so, then i look at aapl with monthly and weekly sequentials pecked to the market indexes. looking at the daily counts and where the last series of counts started and ended. i can see support and resistance ranges.

    that range is around 100 to 110, this is where the last 1 sell and completed 9 sell took place.
    a useful and logical support area if earnings were to suck.

    on the upside, i tend to use fibonacci ratios for that. demark has a fibo indicator, but i use my own.

    paul

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  7. AndyApril 30, 2009 at 12:29 PM

    By my count, we have now completed the daily sell countdown as of 4/29. Are there any caveats to the count that would cancel or recycle it? I don't see anything that will at this point, but I don't have all the indicators available.
    We could also trade pretty much sideways until options expiration on May 15, and still get a continuation of the weekly sell count all the way to 9.
    I'm curious, do you use any other TD indicators regularly? I'm intrigued by the TD D-Wave.

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  8. chiumeisterApril 30, 2009 at 12:58 PM

    aapl recycled yesterday as we had 16 consecutive closes greater than the close 4 sessions prior. the better news is that we started a 1-0 sell setup today.

    i try to limit to a few indicators as that helps me focus on portfolio strategies.

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